Collateral value is only formally re-appraised every few years. Continuous monitoring re-values this asset each quarter, so credit risk surfaces as it develops — on a basis that traces to source and holds up under examination, rather than waiting for the next appraisal cycle.
Collateral is formally re-appraised roughly every three years; until then the books carry the origination value — a flat line. Continuous monitoring re-values each quarter, so a move is reflected as it happens. The shaded region is the value change not yet recorded on the bank's books.
Value = NOI ÷ cap rate, so every move decomposes exactly into an income effect and a cap-rate effect.
Each quarter's change attributed to income vs. cap-rate movement.
| Quarter | Value | Δ | ← Income | ← Cap rate | Cap % | Implied NOI | LTV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 2026 | $9.15M | +0.1% | +0.9% | -0.8% | 6.37% (+5) | $583K | 55% |
| Mar 2026 | $9.14M | +1.6% | +1.0% | +0.6% | 6.32% (-4) | $578K | 55% |
| Dec 2025 | $9.00M | +1.8% | +0.8% | +0.9% | 6.36% (-6) |
The inputs the monitoring model is carrying for this asset today.
The market yield applied to stabilized income. Re-estimated each quarter from observed transaction and survey evidence; a lower rate implies a higher value for the same income.
Derived as value × cap rate. Reflects the monitoring model's current view of stabilized income; the originating appraisal's NOI is shown for comparison below.
Stabilized income normalized to the subject's size for comparison against the competitive set.
The 90% interval is wider than a fresh appraisal because monitoring re-values from market movement rather than a new inspection and full three-approach reconciliation.
Each enrolled asset is re-valued every quarter; a fresh signed appraisal is recommended when a material-change or covenant alert fires.
How each key input has moved since the originating appraisal.
Probability of default (PD) is modeled at 1.9%. PD rises with leverage and a deteriorating value trend; at the current LTV of 55% and a trailing trend of 8.1%, the model places the asset in a low-risk band.
Loss given default (LGD) is 0%, reflecting the shortfall if the collateral were liquidated at a distressed CRE haircut (~32%) net of selling costs against the outstanding loan balance.
Expected credit loss (ECL) = PD × LGD × loan balance = 0.00% × $5,008,000 = $0. This feeds the CECL reserve. The model is illustrative; a production CECL model incorporates macro scenarios, borrower financials, and guarantor support.
Since enrollment, the monitored value has increased 8.1%, from $8,467,000 to $9,152,797 across 6 quarterly re-valuations. Decomposing the move, 4.0% is attributable to the income effect (implied NOI moved from $560,515 to $583,033) and 4.1% to the cap-rate effect (the market yield moved from 6.62% to 6.37%). The dominant driver over the window was the movement in market capitalization rates.
With the loan balance fixed at $5,008,000, the loan-to-value ratio is now 55%. This remains within covenant tolerances.
The figures above are produced by the quarterly monitoring model, which re-values from observed market movement in cap rates and income. They are a screening view; a fresh, MAI-signed appraisal — with a new inspection and full three-approach reconciliation — is recommended before a credit decision, and automatically whenever a material-change or covenant alert fires.
| $572K |
| 56% |
| Sep 2025 | $8.84M | +2.9% | +0.9% | +2.0% | 6.42% (-13) | $567K | 57% |
| Jun 2025 | $8.59M | +1.5% | +0.4% | +1.1% | 6.55% (-7) | $563K | 58% |
| Input | Origination | Today | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Loan-to-value | 59% | 55% | ▼ 4.4% |